# Week Notes - July 19th


## COVID-19

_Alright, time for some armchair epidemiology._ /s

So, the COVID-19 news in the US over the past few weeks has been pretty
distressing. There's (rightfully) been a lot of news coverage of the states that
have exploded in case counts: Texas, Arizona, Florida, etc. But, in the
background, things are deteriorating in a number of states that had been doing
"well" until recently.

![](https://benjamincongdon.me/blog/2020/07/19/Week-Notes-July-19th/wa-covid.png)

As an example, Washington had been seeing decreasing case counts, but starting
in late June, the numbers rose again. Now, we've had a couple weeks of record
new cases.

I've stayed pretty conservative in our activities. I still only go out grocery
shopping once every other week, and really haven't taken part in any of the
"reopening". So, there's not much more I can do on that front.

The biggest question on my mind is _"when will this be over"?_ There are other
pressing questions, of course, but I've found that having a mental model for the
duration of the pandemic has been comforting in light of all the uncertainty. To
build a (very, very rough) model of this, I've been thinking about a (very
rough) heuristic that I find interesting called the
[Lindy effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect), which posits that
"future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an
idea is proportional to its current age". The canonical example is that, since
books have existed for 2000 years, we expect that books, as a technology, will
exist for at least another 2000 years. There's some shaky math behind this, but
it's not meant to be a precise prediction. Applying this to the COVID-19
pandemic, I've been in lockdown since March 5, 137 days ago. Doubling that time
-- 137 days in the future -- puts us at December 4th.

Another way of phrasing this heuristic is, "how long would this event last if we
were halfway done with it _today_". If we were indeed halfway through the
pandemic, we'd expect it to last until early December. However, I don't think
that's a safe assumption: with the way things have been trending over the past 2
months, I could see the tail end of COVID-19 extending well into 2021.

My personal "expectation" of how long the pandemic will last has changed quite a
bit in the last few months. Initially, I think we all expected lockdowns to last
a few weeks, at most. Then, it became clear we'd be locked down for several
months -- with the caveat that things would likely improve in the Summer,
allowing for a cautiously "open" Fall. Now, who can guess?

This week, my mental model for the pandemic shifted to what others have been
expressing for a while: We're in this for many, many more months, yet. Until
_something_ changes (likely requiring some type of large government-driven
response), we're going to be stuck in a period of uncontrolled spread, or a
just-barely-controlled plateau.

Granted, there's some optimism to be found on the horizons in the form of
vaccines and improved treatments, but... things are still feeling pretty grim
right now.

## Sinc Keyboard

As a bit of escapism, I've continued to follow my interest in split ergonomic
mechanical keyboards. I ordered Keeb.io's
[Sinc Split Keyboard](https://keeb.io/products/sinc-split-staggered-75-keyboard)
PCB a few weeks ago, and it arrived this week, along with a set of key switches.

![](https://benjamincongdon.me/blog/2020/07/19/Week-Notes-July-19th/sinc.jpg)

I also ordered a set of pinhole sockets so that the keyswitches are
hot-swappable. I've been enjoying linear style switches recently (my current
keyboard has Cherry Red switches, but I ordered a set of Gateron Reds for this
new board), but I like the idea of being able to swap out the switches without
resoldering the whole board.

I'm waiting on my set of keycaps to arrive now... I ordered a set from Signature
Plastics, which is a pretty popular manufacturer of custom keycaps. I was
surprised to learn that they're based out of Washington. Homestate pride!

## Assorted Links

-   I've started a [list of "2020-isms"](/2020isms/). Jason Kottke
    [posted](https://kottke.org/20/05/covid-19-slang-and-how-language-evolves-quickly-in-stressful-times)
    back in May about how COVID-19 is creating new slang and language patterns.
    Since then, I've been slowly curating a list of new or more widely used
    phrases.
-   Raph Levien's
    ["Seeking truth in a time of misinformation"](https://raphlinus.github.io/covid/2020/07/08/seeking-truth.html)
    was a good read about how even well-intentioned journalism about COVID-19
    can be misleading. The main takeaway is to focus on an "information diet" of
    people well-versed in science journalism. Raph also has a
    [COVID-19 Twitter list](https://twitter.com/i/lists/1239639611694911489)
    which is worth reading through periodically.
-   [This episode of "This Week in Virology"](https://overcast.fm/+HPZ1XG3U)
    with Anthony Fauci was enjoyable to listen to. Fauci is clearly a quite
    intelligent scientist, and in this setting you hear him talking with peers
    using the technical jargon that is often absent from his other public
    appearances. I didn't understand it all (I'm not a virologist), but
    listening to clearly competent people talking about their area of expertise
    is always interesting.