# List of Lists of 2022 Predictions


> Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.
>
> \- Søren Kierkegaard

'Tis the season for prognosticating 2022. It seems like January now brings a
deluge of folks registering predictions for the upcoming year (and, even better,
scoring their previous predictions!). I'm becoming more interested in
predictions and prediction markets as a sense-making tool. Reading others'
predictions provides a uncommonly quantitative insight into their mental models.

![Obligatory orb pondering](https://benjamincongdon.me/blog/2022/01/10/List-of-Lists-of-2022-Predictions/orb.jpg)

Since I've been consuming so many of these posts, I figured I'd collect a list
of them, for ease of reference later.

## Scoring of 2021 (or Prior) Predictions

-   John Battelle:
    [Predictions 2021: How’d I Do? Pretty Damn Well.](https://battellemedia.com/archives/2021/12/predictions-2021-howd-i-do-pretty-damn-well)
    -   Topics: Big tech, regulation, social media, economics.
-   Matt Yglesias:
    [Predictions are hard](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard)
    -   Topics: Politics, economics, tech.
-   Scott Alexander:
    [Grading My 2021 Predictions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions)
    -   Topics: COVID, politics, crypto
-   Vitalik Buterin:
    [Reviewing Etherium Predictions](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1477402749994156036)
    -   Topics: Ethereum
    -   [ThreadReader Link](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1477404671606153218.html)
-   Stephen Malina:
    [Scoring my 2021 Predictions](https://stephenmalina.com/post/2021-12-31-scoring-my-2021-predictions/)
    -   Topics: COVID, Politics, Tech
-   Tom Scott:
    [Ten years ago, I predicted 2022. Did I get it right?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYj3DnI81AQ&list=WL)
    -   Topics: Tech, social media
-   Scott Galloway:
    [2022 Predictions](https://www.profgalloway.com/2022-predictions/)
    -   Topics: Tech, Media

## 2022 Predictions

[For reference, I refer to _"binary outcomes"_ as a prediction that can
unambiguously and falsifiably resolve to a "Yes" or "No" result (within reason).
_"Binary outcome with percentage"_ means the same, but that the author also
associated a likelihood with the prediction (e.g. "99% chance that the sun comes
up tomorrow"). _"Qualitative outcomes"_ means that the prediction is more of a
["I know it when I see it"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it)
prognostication, that has enough wiggle room for nontrivial
[rules lawyering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_lawyer).]

-   Matt Yglesias:
    [Predictions are hard](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard)
    -   Topics: COVID, politics, crypto
    -   Format: Binary outcome with percentages
-   John Battelle:
    [Predictions 2022](https://battellemedia.com/archives/2021/12/predictions-2022-crypto-climate-big-tech-streaming-offices-tik-tok-and-ugh-trump)
    -   Topics: Social media, tech, politics, politics
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Matt Rickard: [2022 Predictions](https://matt-rickard.com/2022-predictions/)
    -   Topics: Tech, crypto, economics
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Casey Newton:
    [22 predictions for the consumer internet in 2022](https://www.platformer.news/p/22-predictions-for-the-consumer-internet)
    -   Topics: Tech, crypto
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Scott Alexander:
    [Predictions For 2022](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest)
    -   Topics: COVID, politics, crypto
    -   Format: Binary outcome with percentages
-   Daniel Miessler:
    [My Predictions for Crypto](https://danielmiessler.com/blog/my-predictions-for-crypto/)
    -   Topics: Crypto
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Michael Batnick:
    [10 Predictions for 2022](https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/02/10-predictions-for-2022/)
    -   Topics: Economics
    -   Format: Mixture of binary and qualitative outcomes
-   Umair Haque:
    [What Kind of Year is 2022 Going to Be?](https://eand.co/what-kind-of-year-is-2022-going-to-be-63c7a99792ef)
    -   Topics: Climate change, COVID, political instability.
        -   (Note: This one contains a lot of "doom and gloom")
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Kev Quirk: [My Predictions For 2022](https://kevq.uk/2022-predictions)
    -   Topics: Tech
    -   Format: Binary outcomes
-   Scott Galloway:
    [2022 Predictions](https://www.profgalloway.com/2022-predictions/)
    -   Topics: Tech, Media
    -   Format: Mixture of binary and qualitative outcomes

### Satire

-   Erich Grunewald:
    [Predictions for 2022](https://www.erichgrunewald.com/posts/predictions-for-2022/)
-   Sasha Chapin:
    [2050 Predictions](https://sashachapin.substack.com/p/2050-predictions)
    ("_this is what the world will definitely look like_")

## Long-term Predictions

-   Stephen Malina:
    [2050 Predictions](https://stephenmalina.com/post/2022-01-01-2050-predictions/)
    -   Topics: AI, science, crypto
    -   Format: Mixture of binary and qualitative outcomes
-   SlimeMoldTimeMold:
    [Predictions for 2050](https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/01/01/predictions-for-2050/)
    -   Topics: Tech, science, politics, society
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Jehan @ Atoms vs. Bits:
    [2050 Predictions: Eyes, Xi, Apps, Cars, Traits, Bounties](https://www.atvbt.com/2050/)
    -   Topics: Tech, politics, health
    -   Format: Mixture of binary and qualitative outcomes
-   Adam Mastroianni:
    [450 million guns and other predictions for 2050](https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/450-million-guns-and-other-predictions)
    -   Topics: Qualitative outcomes
    -   Format: Society, politics, tech
-   Rohit @ Strange Loop Canon: [2050](https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/2050)
    -   Topics: Tech, science, health, society
    -   Format: Qualitative outcomes
-   Holden Karnofsky / Zvi Mowshowitz:
    [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/)
    -   Topics: COVID
    -   Format: Binary outcome with percentage + wager

## Prediction Platforms I'm Watching This Year

To close off this post, here are the prediction markets that I look at most
regularly. I've participated in a few Metaculus markets, but haven't yet
ventured into wagering any real money on predictions.

Nevertheless, these markets are a useful mechanism to get a sense for what the
consensus is on uncertain outcomes.

-   [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/)
    -   No real $, only magic internet points
    -   Active community
    -   Many types of market (e.g. binary outcomes, range/distribution outcomes)
        No real $ wagered
-   [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets)
    -   Real $ market (in the US)
    -   Somehow got through all the regulatory hurdles to be approved of by the
        SEC
-   [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/)
    -   Promising crypto $ market (though markets are backed by cryptocurrency)
    -   Uncertain future due to
        [regulatory action](https://www.yahoo.com/now/cftc-fines-polymarket-issues-cease-025617843.html?guccounter=1)
-   [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/)
    -   Real $ market
    -   Primarily centered around US politics
-   [Good Judgment Project](https://goodjudgment.com/)
    -   Limited set of public predictions by Philip Tetlock's
        ["Superforecasters"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project)

Happy predicting! Please do let me know of any other good list of predictions to
add to this list, I may continue to update this as more come out.