Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.

- Søren Kierkegaard

‘Tis the season for prognosticating 2022. It seems like January now brings a deluge of folks registering predictions for the upcoming year (and, even better, scoring their previous predictions!). I’m becoming more interested in predictions and prediction markets as a sense-making tool. Reading others’ predictions provides a uncommonly quantitative insight into their mental models.

Obligatory orb pondering

Obligatory orb pondering

Since I’ve been consuming so many of these posts, I figured I’d collect a list of them, for ease of reference later.

Scoring of 2021 (or Prior) Predictions

2022 Predictions

[For reference, I refer to “binary outcomes” as a prediction that can unambiguously and falsifiably resolve to a “Yes” or “No” result (within reason). “Binary outcome with percentage” means the same, but that the author also associated a likelihood with the prediction (e.g. “99% chance that the sun comes up tomorrow”). “Qualitative outcomes” means that the prediction is more of a “I know it when I see it” prognostication, that has enough wiggle room for nontrivial rules lawyering.]


Long-term Predictions

Prediction Platforms I’m Watching This Year

To close off this post, here are the prediction markets that I look at most regularly. I’ve participated in a few Metaculus markets, but haven’t yet ventured into wagering any real money on predictions.

Nevertheless, these markets are a useful mechanism to get a sense for what the consensus is on uncertain outcomes.

  • Metaculus
    • No real $, only magic internet points
    • Active community
    • Many types of market (e.g. binary outcomes, range/distribution outcomes) No real $ wagered
  • Kalshi
    • Real $ market (in the US)
    • Somehow got through all the regulatory hurdles to be approved of by the SEC
  • Polymarket
    • Promising crypto $ market (though markets are backed by cryptocurrency)
    • Uncertain future due to regulatory action
  • PredictIt
    • Real $ market
    • Primarily centered around US politics
  • Good Judgment Project

Happy predicting! Please do let me know of any other good list of predictions to add to this list, I may continue to update this as more come out.